Projections: Goalies

Earlier this week, the defense was my topic of discussion, today, to finish off projections for this years Islanders team I will discuss the goalies.

1) Ilya Sorokin

31 wins

20 loses

5 OTL

2.50 GAA 

.915 save percentage

The most important player on the Islanders coincidentally will be the guy I think benefits most from Peter DeBoer now being Islanders coach.  Sorokin was the main engine on the back of the Islanders last season as they spent the majority of the season firmly in a playoff spot.  However, an over reliance on Sorokin and the absence of structure in the defensive zone proved to be too much for Sorokin to bear as he kinda fell off toward the end of the season along with the rest of the team.  With DeBoer in there now, structure will no longer be an issue as that is one of the cornerstones of DeBoers coaching much in the way it was with Barry Trotz.  With that being said, I think Sorokin could have one of his better statistical seasons that he has had in the last few.  If this occurs, it will go a long way toward the Islanders making a return to the Playoffs.

2) Semyon Varlamov

1 win 

2 loses

2 OTL

2.85 GAA

.895 save percentage

The fact that we are speaking about Semyon Valarmov as a legitimate back up option in net for the Islanders is just astounding to me.  After going through not one but two knee replacement surgeries, Varly managed to make it back to play a couple games for Bridgeport at the end of last season.  To his credit, he didn't only make it back but performed very well for Bridgeport as well which put him back on the radar for the NHL team heading into this season.  Unfortunately, coming in with the expectations that he will be able to play 25 plus games for us I don't feel is fair to him but I am rooting very hard for him.  If he manages to suit up even once for us I feel like that should instantly put him in comeback player of the year running.

3) Vitek Vanecek 

8 wins

10 loses

5 OTL

2.80 GAA

.894 save percentage

With my expectations low for Varly, that means Vanecek will have a sizeable role for the Islanders this season.  To say I don't feel great about that is an understatement because it has been a struggle for Vanecek for a few years now, but he is an NHL caliber goalie back there at least.  I hope I am wrong and Vanecek spends a majority of the season in Hamilton because Varlamov is healthy but we will see what happens.

Predictions: Top 6 Defensemen

In our last post, we discussed the bottom 6 forwards, today we will get to the top 6 defensemen.

1) Matthew Schaefer 

25 goals

40 assists

65 points

To say Schaefer set the league on fire last season would be an understatement.  Nobody saw him coming at freshly 18 years old and cementing himself as one of the top defensemen in the entire NHL on his way to a unanimous rookie of the year award.  I am expecting him to build on his success from last season and continuing to cement himself as the face of the organization for years to come.

2) Ryan Pulock

4 goals

26 assists

30 points

The disappearance of Pulocks offensive game is never something that will make sense to me but here we are.  Last season was Pulock's healthiest since the 2022/2023 season when he didn't miss a game.  The Islanders will need that to continue next season if they want to have the success they hope for.  Pulock spent most of last season paired with Schaefer, with recent talks about possibly moving Schaefer to the right side I wonder where that would leave Pulock.

3) Adam Pelech

3 goals

15 assists

18 points

Speaking of being unusually healthy, that was Adam Pelech who didn't miss a single game all season.  Pelech was a popular name in the trade market this season due to the glut of left handed defensemen the Islanders have and most thinking that Pelech's value had peaked at the age of 32.  He is still here though and much like Pulock, the Islanders need him to stay on the ice again this season if they want to have the success they hope for under new coach Peter DeBoer.

4) Tony DeAngelo

8 goals

32 assists

40 points

DeAngelo is a tricky player for me, he does some things that make you go like wow that was impressive.  But on other occasions, he is so turnover prone and will leave you with your head in your hands.  He was signed to a 2 year extension this off-season worth 4 million per season.  He has been a revelation since Lou brought him back from over seas.  However, with Pulock and Pelech not getting younger and now his fresh two year extension Tony is someone that will be looked to, to step up.  Can he do it?  We shall see!

5) Alexander Romanov

4 goals

12 assists

16 points

After missing most of last season following that dirty hit from Mikko Rantanen on Dallas, the Islanders are hoping for a bounce back season from Romanov in year 2 of his 8 year deal.  Offense isn't something that Romanov will be looked at for, but his quickness and physical play are keys for the Islanders this season.  Also, next off-season no trade protection kicks in for Romanov, so his performance this season could have long standing impacts on both his career and the team for years to come.

6) Scott Mayfield

1 goal

8 assists

9 points

As I said when talking about Pierre Engvall, Mayfield is Lou's gift that keeps on giving and unfortunately for us, not in a good way.  This season I think will be the first where Mayfield is no longer an every game starter for the Islanders as Isaiah George makes his way to the NHL.  I do think Mayfield will likely be in there more times then not, however I think he will spend many games in the press box barring injury as George begins to become an NHL starter.

Honorable Mention:

Isaiah George

2 goals

6 assists

8 points

I expect George to have NHL time resembling what we saw two seasons ago when he played in 33 games.  Much like Pelech, George has been a popular name to speak about this summer after comments from Peter DeBoer at the end of last season talking about him being NHL ready.  I am rooting for him and hope he is able to make the transition this season.

Projections: Bottom 6 Forwards

After discussing the top 6 forwards last week, today I will move on to the bottom 6 forwards.

1) JG Pageau

19 goals 

20 assists

39 points

Pageau became a bit of a polarizing figure last year being he was in the final year of his contract.  The Islanders put that to bed at the trade deadline signing him to a 3 year extension to remain their 3rd line center.  This was unfortunately done right after acquiring Brayden Schenn from St. Louis which rightfully brought on questions from fans and analysts a like.  With that being said, on the ice Pageau had his second best goal scoring season as an Islander only behind 21/22 season when he had 18 goals.  He also remained a steady force on the PK as well as in the faceoff circle.  As we begin to transition more young players into the lineup I can see Pageau providing immense value there as a mentor and steadying presence for them.

2) Simon Holmstrom

23 goals

27 assists

50 points

If you look around the Islanders, nobody is being mentioned more then Simon Holmstrom and what a big season this is for him.  With rising salaries and only 1 additional season of RFA eligibility left following this season before he hits UFA the time is now for him to show he deserves a long term big contract with the Islanders.  He is a force on the PK most of the time with Pageau, I mentioned above about Pageau being a steadying presence for young players coming up, I feel like we can look at Holmstrom to see what he can do in that department.  Back to Holmstrom, he has growth to do outside of the penalty kill to fully grow into the top 6 forward the Islanders need him to be.  I hope he is able to do it but I am not sure and my projections reflect that.

3) Matias Maccelli

17 goals

30 assists

47 points

When non tender lists started passing around in the days before free agency started, the name that intrigued me most was Maccelli.  So, I was pretty pleased when we took a flier on him when free agency opened.  Unfortunately, he was our lone addition after saying goodbye to Anders Lee when he signed in Utah.  Though known as more of playmaker, he still put up 14 goals on a pretty rough Toronto team last season so he does have goal scoring ability.  If he is able to get to around my projection that would essentially be a wash with Lees goal total from last season.  He is still only 25 years old so if he manages to figure it out and fit in, he could be a member of this core for years to come.

4) Emil Heineman

18 goals

13 assists

31 points

Do I think Heineman is best used in this spot?  Probably not, however, given the type of game he plays I think he fits best compared to the other players in the lineup.  I think he will see a little bit of a dip in goals from getting less top 6 time.  With that being said, I think he will still be very effective for us this season cementing himself as a fan favorite and hopefully a member of this team long term.

5) Casey Cizikas

12 goals

10 assists

22 points

With the departure of Lee to Ottawa, Cizikas is now the longest tenured Islander playing his first game for the team back in the 2011-2012 season.  This is a big year for Cizikas as his contract expires at the end of the season.  Though he isn't the player he once was, he is still an effective grinder and penalty killer out there and is the heart of the team.  I expect him to be effective this season, but to skate off into the sunset like his former line mates at the seasons end because I don't see Darche extending his contract passed this season as he tries to transition to a younger lineup.  Not many guys play their entire career with one organization now a days and Cizikas has the opportunity to do that.

6) Anthony Duclair

15 goals

10 assists 

25 points

Do I think Duclair will spend the entire season in the lineup?  Absolutely not, however, comparing him to the other options I think he is most likely to be in this spot when they break camp in a few weeks.  Though his two way game is lackluster to say the least, he does produce offensively when in there.  For a team that struggles to score like we do, we need all the goals we can get.

Honorable Mention:

Ondrej Palat

The only player more polarizing then Brayden Schenn might be Ondrej Palat.  I was a little perplexed that Darche didn't buy him out, but were here now and he will be here as well.  After watching him for the better part of 2 months last season I don't expect anything from Palat this year.  My main expectation for him this season is to have a seat reserved for himself in the various press boxes across the NHL.  Will he get into a few games here and there?  Probably, yes.  However, I don't expect to see him often at all because as we saw last season he doesn't really have anything to give and now he is a year older.

Pierre Engvall

Engvall is back after missing all of last season with multiple injuries.  Between him and Mayfield, they are Lou's gifts that keep on giving.  At this point I don't see a role for Engvall on this team anymore.  The problem with that is he still has 4 years left on the contract Lou gave him, as I said the gift that keeps on giving.  Barring something unforeseen, I expect Engvall to be buried in the AHL to start the season and unless he surprises a lot of people to probably spend the entire season down there.

Liam Foudy

One reason I expect Engvall to struggle to get called up is because of players like Liam Foudy.  He got in the final game of last season and seemed to impress many people.  I firmly expect him and several others to be ahead of Engvall on the injury call up chart.